Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 124.420201 143.686317 165.711837 192.920697 225.856065 264.721945 314.484600
2025-11-30 103.800768 129.120965 160.909143 204.383353 263.298461 341.862059 457.173179
2025-12-07 87.819725 115.166034 151.901220 206.108904 286.282173 404.256613 598.574491
2025-12-14 77.624713 106.192513 146.733254 210.463891 312.051796 475.151113 773.927061
2025-12-21 68.910267 97.522629 139.973865 210.298534 329.753635 536.707951 954.163844
2025-12-28 65.084383 95.227901 141.968655 223.614089 371.723332 649.951524 1274.099182
2026-01-04 61.247893 92.243416 142.199909 233.689143 409.912887 767.046763 1655.516305
2026-01-11 57.607390 89.008750 141.395650 241.541462 445.446552 889.541925 2112.864295
2026-01-18 53.765979 84.920869 138.473032 244.780698 472.255710 1001.505286 2607.565198
2026-01-25 49.964585 80.438695 134.206871 244.567798 491.514174 1102.053956 3133.529299
2026-02-01 45.901751 75.059808 127.621511 238.539817 496.259554 1167.566760 3591.098183
2026-02-08 42.398078 70.331941 121.694655 232.923002 500.723212 1234.175816 4104.655757
2026-02-15 39.162656 65.900091 116.048226 227.523318 505.870463 1309.106150 4737.067683
2026-02-22 38.426997 66.036302 119.363016 242.637269 567.978153 1586.387887 6587.239527
2026-03-01 36.473707 63.656658 117.313615 245.044432 596.681356 1769.626870 8228.835374
2026-03-08 34.980409 62.019516 116.593425 250.511349 635.892262 2012.218120 10630.450252
2026-03-15 33.147240 59.535709 113.785287 250.325292 658.284927 2203.939283 13073.449553
2026-03-22 32.761718 59.927669 117.250819 266.864290 739.000085 2692.798267 19182.546541
2026-03-29 32.061688 59.598527 119.063119 279.410224 811.337826 3203.143673 27439.627262
2026-04-05 31.200717 58.846850 119.813594 289.207379 877.969131 3744.935541 38767.382540
2026-04-12 30.036721 57.341340 118.622246 293.253782 925.000917 4224.875979 52243.489263
2026-04-19 28.710573 55.373133 116.111805 292.987776 955.434359 4637.716161 67781.805079
2026-04-26 27.090056 52.633804 111.453677 285.460561 953.977850 4847.058471 80798.534246